CATEGORY · 42 ENTRIES

Probability & Logic

How the brain miscalculates odds, patterns, and what "randomness" actually looks like.

Most people could not pass a basic statistics quiz. The biases in this category are why even people who *can* pass one still bet wrong, argue wrong, and reason wrong when the numbers matter.

#2
Survivorship Bias
Probability & Logic
#12
Gambler’s Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#18
Base Rate Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#24
Berkson's Paradox
Probability & Logic
#26
Anchoring Bias
Probability & Logic
#29
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#30
Pessimism Bias
Probability & Logic
#33
McNamara Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#34
Availability Heuristic
Probability & Logic
#43
Planning Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#47
Conjunction Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#60
Zero-Sum Bias
Probability & Logic
#63
Optimism Bias
Probability & Logic
#71
Illusion of Control
Probability & Logic
#72
Probability Weighting
Probability & Logic
#83
Clustering Illusion
Probability & Logic
#89
Representativeness Heuristic
Probability & Logic
#92
Hot-Hand Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#104
Illusory Correlation
Probability & Logic
#147
Scope Insensitivity
Probability & Logic
#148
Belief Bias
Probability & Logic
#149
Insensitivity to Sample Size
Probability & Logic
#152
Prosecutor's Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#153
Zero-Risk Bias
Probability & Logic
#157
Impact Bias
Probability & Logic
#160
Regression Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#161
Time-Saving Bias
Probability & Logic
#164
Congruence Bias
Probability & Logic
#165
Neglect of Probability
Probability & Logic
#166
Illusion of Validity
Probability & Logic
#167
Proportionality Bias
Probability & Logic
#171
Pseudocertainty Effect
Probability & Logic
#175
Well-Travelled Road Effect
Probability & Logic
#182
Recognition Heuristic
Probability & Logic
#184
Certainty Effect
Probability & Logic
#185
Subadditivity Effect
Probability & Logic
#187
Narrative Fallacy
Probability & Logic
#189
Retrospective Determinism
Probability & Logic
#190
Simulation Heuristic
Probability & Logic
#192
Attribute Substitution
Probability & Logic
#196
Denominator Neglect
Probability & Logic
#204
Dread Risk
Probability & Logic
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